Modeling and Simulation in Complex Project Management

Content

This chapter is devoted to contemporary modeling and simulation techniques applied to complex project management. It is divided into two main parts:

• In the first part we provide a theoretical overview of project management from the perspective of a systemic approach applying casual-loops diagrams, a methodology frequently used to produce a conceptual view of complex systems. We reflect typical causes of frequent project failures. We use a case study of a software development company to illustrate a common behavior when complex project spirals out of control. We provide a brief literature overview of project management simulations studies and give some practical advice for project management practitioners.
• In the second part we provide an overview of three most widespread modeling techniques (system dynamics, agent-based and discrete event modeling) using some simple models of project management as examples. The second part of the chapter might be of interest to those who are interested to make their first steps in application of simulations to project modeling. AnyLogic software is used to illustrate case studies.

Abstract

Simulation has a proven track record of studying complex projects. First research dates back to 1960s but only in 1980s the first project-specific modeling application were established. Since 1990s many publications have appeared documenting usage of simulation in project management. These were the early attempts to investigate impact of managerial decisions on the project execution based on the assumption that perception of the project’s state may be different from reality.

Time and causal dependencies are critical for project management. Static mathematical formulas that simplify the dynamic processes and abstract away from causal dependencies are not applicable for project management issues. This fact makes simulation a unique instrument in this domain.

The concepts of rework, undiscovered rework, perceived progress and real productivity are currently the classics of project management simulation models. In the book chapter we illustrate how to apply these principles learning the case study of software development project management.

In the book chapter we give key concepts how to build adequate representation of the complex system or process with various simulation modeling methods.

About the authors

Sergey Suslov is a simulation modeling expert with extensive experience in software development and the practical application of simulation tools in complex business and project management contexts. Over the course of his career, he has worked with simulation technologies across multiple industries, helping organizations use modeling to improve planning, decision-making, and project outcomes.

Dmitry Katalevsky is a project management and simulation specialist with a strong background in consulting, academic research, and education. He has more than fifteen years of experience working on complex projects in both the public and private sectors. His work focuses on applying simulation methods to project management, organizational analysis, and strategic decision-making.